Has the Maui Lani Real Estate Market Recovered?

One of the biggest fears in purchasing real estate is losing equity. Buying a home can end up feeling like a high stakes game of Texas Hold'em rather than an appreciating investment. To answer my own curiosities, I set out to isolate one of my favorite communities on Maui, Maui Lani. I wanted to take a look at the overall market and what trends have taken place since the peak in 2007 to now; my results are below.

When Was the Actual Peak Before the Crash?

There are multiple indicators that one might consider "the peak." I addressed each year by calendar year totals. Here are the areas that I isolated:

Highest median sales price: 2008 - $589,000 Highest number of homes sold: 2007 - 159 homes sold Highest total sales volume: 2007 - $95,000,000

My overall assessment of when the "peak market" occurred would have to be 2007. The fact that 2008 had a median sales price of $589k could be irrelevant; many of those sales most likely went into contract in 2007. The 2007 median sales price was second at $583k.

What Was the Bottom of the Market Post 2007 Peak?

Here I used the same numbers that applied for defining the peak:

Lowest median sales price: 2012 - $401,000 Lowest number of homes sold: 2012 - 52 homes sold Lowest total sales volume: 2012 - $22,000,000

I think it's safe to say that 2012 was a pretty crummy year; we can consider this the "burn" to our "crash."

Let's Compare the Bottom of the Market (2012) to Now (2016)

January 1st - November 1st

January 1st - November 1st

And Peak Market (2007) to Now (2016)

January 1st - November 1st

January 1st - November 1st


What I gathered is that 2007 was an extremely false market. With only 2% cash sales, this tells me that (as we all know) a toad could of qualified for a loan. The interesting thing is that from 2012 to now, cash sales have remained the same at 13%. That seems like healthy growth to me.

I know it looks like the market has not fully recovered when you look at the total sales and total sales volume from 07' to 16', but what I see is a higher median sale price and less competition from a seller's point of view. Overall, values have recovered and I feel we are on a slow, healthy incline - it only took 10 years.

Give us a call, and we can discuss how The Stice Team can use our local market knowledge to represent you in the sales or purchase of your home.

Tim Stice, R(B) 21556 timstice@hawaiilife.com 808.268.8511